Tuesday, August 10, 2010

When exactly does “Recovery Summer” begin?
The administration is telling us things are getting better but they’re not

WASHINGTON, DC—“Recovery Summer” seems to be out of synch with the calendar. According to long held belief, summer is wedged between spring and fall, occurring from June through August. But August is here and the last two months haven’t shown us recovery.

The latest figures out aren’t encouraging or supportive of the administration’s schedule. The Washington Times puts those numbers in perspective:

“From a peak annual growth rate of 5 percent last autumn, the measure of gross domestic product slid to 3.7 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and was down to 2.4 percent by the end of June.”

2.4 percent? That’s anemic at best with a growth rate of 5+ percent needed over at least two to several quarters to pull the United States out of recession. So the administration is doing what it can to fix the problem—the problem of taking responsibility for the recovery summer non-start.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told Good Morning America’s audience to go back to sleep and wait for the worst to be over, when you wake up in a few months (or years) the economy will be roaring again. Meanwhile his boss blamed the failed policies of the past administration and lambasted republicans for not having any new ideas—that should get the economy back on track.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Economists predict double dip recession
Leading indicators point toward an extended downturn

WASHINGTON, DC—The Associated Press is reporting economic forecasts for 2011, and they are bleak; citing a continuing high unemployment rate, weak GDP growth, lack of consumer spending, and a anemic housing market:

“The U.S. economic recovery will remain slow deep into next year, held back by shoppers reluctant to spend and employers hesitant to hire, according to an Associated Press survey of leading economists.”

Growth predictions are estimated to be 3 percent or less in the first and second quarters of 2011, with the country needing 5+ percent growth—led by consumer spending—over at least two quarters in GDP to lift out of the extended recession. But according to the AP, that spending will be absent:

Consumers aren't leading this rebound, as they usually do, despite ultra-low borrowing costs. Their spending growth will weaken in the second half of this year and strengthen only slightly next year, a majority of economists said.” 

That lack of consumerism is a drag on consumer confidence and on retailers and small businesses, which make up 70 percent of the economy.